Cognitive Bias

The Brain’s Shortcuts

A cognitive bias is a systematic error in thinking that occurs when the brain attempts to simplify information processing. The brain is an energy miser; it prefers a fast, easy answer (heuristic) over a slow, accurate one. While efficient for survival, these shortcuts are disastrous for modern strategic decision-making.

Common Performance Biases

• Confirmation Bias: The tendency to search for information that confirms your pre-existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory data. This creates echo chambers and blind spots.

• Sunk Cost Fallacy: The emotional urge to continue a failing endeavor because of the time/money already invested, rather than cutting losses based on future value.

• Negativity Bias: The brain prioritizes negative information (threats) over positive information (opportunities) by a ratio of roughly 3:1.

De-Biasing Protocols

You cannot eliminate bias, but you can mitigate it.

• Inversion: Instead of asking “How do I succeed?”, ask “How would I guarantee failure?” This forces the brain to see risks it was ignoring.

• Red Teaming: Assigning a specific person or group to challenge the consensus view to break the Confirmation Bias loop.